2024-12-24T16:42:32+0800

It's April 19, 2024: Bitcoin's 4th Halving is happening today! The block reward, doled out every 10 minutes, will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. That translates into an inflation rate of only 0.85%, far less than gold or any other currency. From now until 2140, the inflation rate will slowly decrease to zero. This explains why Bitcoin has appreciated against inflating currencies over several years —and that it will continue since governments will always recklessly print money. In this episode, we celebrate the BTC Halving by reviewing Plan B's stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which I first critiqued at the previous halving in 2020. Back then, I predicted that the model would break in 2024 and beyond. My original article/video are here: https://francistapon.com/Work/WanderLearn-Podcast/8-flaws-in-bitcoin-s-stock-to-flow-model-will-doom-it Because the article and video were so viral, I've been reviewing the model's state annually.  This update is extra special because it's the 2024 Halving. Watch the 9-minute video below to see why I still believe what I said in 2020: that this year, the stock-to-flow model will begin to crack. As I explained in the video, the divergence between the two most recent models and reality is already happening. Only the original and most conservative S2F model remains viable. But in 2025 and definitely by 2026, you'll see that model will become as useless as the last two S2F models.   Leave anonymous audio feedback at https://speakpipe.com/ftapon More info You can post comments, ask questions, and sign up for my newsletter at http://wanderlearn.com. Subscribe and share! On social media, my username is always ftapon. Follow me on: https://facebook.com/ftapon https://twitter.com/ftapon https://instagram.com/ftapon https://youtube.com/user/ftapon https://tiktok.com/ftapon https://pinterest.com/ftapon https://tumblr.com/ftapon My Patrons sponsored this show! Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon Rewards start at just $2/month! Affiliate links Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free! https://www.podbean.com/ftapon In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583 Get the Ledger crypto hardware wallet: https://shop.ledger.com/?r=a673bccc2782 Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees! https://accounts.binance.com/en/register?ref=LWXFYQOS For backpacking gear, buy from Gossamer Gear: https://www.gossamergear.com/?rfsn=2024242.1f815 Get nomadic travel insurance from SafetyWing! https://safetywing.com/?referenceID=ftapon&utm_source=ftapon&utm_medium=Ambassador